First Parliament Burma opened in Naypyidaw in strict secret capital. This first session of Parliament in 22 years is a watershed, with the introduction of a new form of civil government to replace the last two decades of the naked military regime. But it is nothing more than a sentence disguised military dictatorship.Disciplined democracy as the leader of the junta prefers dub its military plan to try to win international legitimacy, is just an another charade. The reality is that even if certain structural changes are introduced - a new President, Parliament, Government civil and regional assemblies - little indeed will be different from the past.
Shwe will remain in power – though perhaps not formally - and the new administration will virtually everything consisting of former military men. After months of speculation, it seems now that the current Prime Minister, Thein Sein, when Parliament means to become President and votes for the position in the coming days.
Most of the current Ministers will also renewed, with a few Deputy Ministers adopting high portfolio page, including Maung Myint, who is tipped to become the new Minister for Foreign Affairs. Former principal commanders will become Chief Ministers of the States. General Myint Swe (the former Office of operation special head of Rangoon) is not surprising to become Minister head of Division of Rangoon, and general Ye Myint (former head of Office of the special operation of Mandalay) will become the Chief of the Division of Mandalay Minister.
Despite massive propaganda in recent months, Than Shwe has finally refractory to introduce anything which may damage its authority and lead to a pluralistic system.
In fact, Than Shwe chose to maintain his lieutenants, proven and reliable power. The new civilian Government will be in name only, as it is unlikely that any what piece for civilians in cabinet because Than Shwe does does them not trust.
Of course, his greatest concern is to ensure that the new political system would never have an avenue for a successor to the army build sufficient support and power to overthrow the way in which he removed his predecessor, Saw Maung. The fate of Ne Win and Saw Maung haunts the Burmese, military leader according to sources in his family circle.
He was so amazed by trying to avoid what he eventually opted to Thein Sein - which has been a General "civil" for awhile now — Prime Minister instead of former General Thura Shwe Mann. But the former number three in the decision of the State peace and Development Council (SPDC) is to trust the critical position of the President of the lower House and will effectively control operation on the day the day of the Parliament and therefore lots of Government.
Shwe is a very prudent at best and thinking of loosening its grip on power gave him nightmares for years, with his wife, especially asking to stay in saddle for as long as possible. But senior General promised neighbours, particularly in the ASEAN countries, China and the India, that change was in the pipeline, but that it could not completely backward. A clear sign that it is not even comfortable with his own modifications, however, is clear: the new Government of military and civilian, including President, is only provisional administration and unlikely to stay in place for more than a year ago.
That Shwe has already warned the future Government if it fails to meet its expectations, the army will entail a further coup to ensure that the country following model military development and governance.
It is still unclear the frequency with which Parliament will meet and how long a session will be, although Naypyidaw sources say that it is running at its first meeting, two weeks after she elects new President and two vice Presidents. It will then be approving Cabinet - chosen by the President - new appointees and senior Ministers by respective regional parliaments.
Plan strategic overall was exposed to remaining generals in the SPDC to its recent quarterly meeting, which is likely to be the last. And future Ministers and Chief Ministers met Than Shwe last Friday in the capital have received their final instructions. Pour la démocratie - senior executive is leaving nothing to chance.
A new political structure will be unveiled in the coming days, but it is only an adaptation of the existing structure of power, with a few checks and balances. On the one hand, Than Shwe and Maung Aye remain in current positions - efficiently in the control of the army at least a year, according to sources in Naypyidaw. They will be also on national defence and the Security Council — a new organization overseeing the army and appoint the leaders in the future.
Army remaining closely under his control, Than Shwe has designed a political system that cascade down from his position at the top of the pyramid of the policy. The party in power, the Union solidarity and development (USDP) part control a triumvirate: three clients - than Shwe, Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann - going control of the party.
The only thing that seems to emerge that power will be more diffuse than before - deliberately to minimize any challenge to its authority. While Than Shwe is still in good health, it may be able to manipulate the political process for its own purpose. But his approach to the balance of power will revive personal ambitions and resentment, as before in time of Khin Nyunt and its network of military intelligence.
Fault lines emerge again, this time among the employees of middle and junior castes who feel that they have been mistreated and had their access companies make money reduced by "new" civil administrators who can no longer feel indebted to the next generation of military leaders. They can also perform as Khin Nyunt and his coterie made earlier, that unless the Burma reaches open onto the world and enjoy a greater global trade and foreign investment - their future may well be limited.
The dangers of the same benign autocratic continues to ignore the interests of the people as a whole were ostensibly illustrated even in the last two weeks - with massive unrest scans of North Africa and Middle East regions. Than Shwe is appalled by scenes on TV of Egypt, according to sources close to the top of the page General.
Could have the final straw that higher general attention to persistent wife urging them not to abandon power - or less to retain control over safely. The irony is that tightening it maintains its grip, the most probable is a reaction. On the one hand, there are two generals, Thura Shwe Mann, who will be very unhappy to current plans of Than Shwe and Maung Aye.
